Thursday, June 26, 2008

Tyler responds!

He says one loyal MR reader asks, but it's not true! I also asked. Here's how he deals with it

I'll give it p = .005.  But what's the chance I think that is the correct p or even in the neighborhood of the correct p?  Maybe 60 percent.

This seems fair enough, he gives a good reason (Fermi Paradox) for believing the probability is low, but I'm not sure how well it gels with this

I've asked atheists what's the chance you're wrong and they'll say something like a trillion to one, and that to me is absurd, that even if you think all of the strongest arguments for atheism are correct, your estimate that atheism is in fact the correct point of view shouldn't be that high, maybe you know 90-10 or 95 to 5, at most.

So Fermi Paradox (strong argument) implies probability of 0.05% but assuming strong argument for atheism are correct implies at most 95%? Why? Why can atheists assign their probability 99.5% but then say they're only 60% sure of this.

Structurally, what's the difference (this is a serious question by the way)?

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